Putting Austerity to Bed: Technical Progress,Aggregate Demand and the Supermultiplier

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the determinants of private investment and economic growth from a theoretical perspective. We start with a critical analysis of the crowding-out effect and we present a new version of the Sraffian Supermultiplier: a model that accounts for both the multiplier and accelerator effects. We focus on different types of fiscal policies: generic ones and ‘mission-oriented’ ones that set a new direction for the economy. We show that mission-oriented policies have the potential to generate the largest positive effect on investments and output growth as well as on innovation processes and labour productivity growth.     

Multi-criteria analysis of economic complexity transition in emerging economies: The case of Paraguay

Like many emerging economies, the productive structure of the Paraguayan economy is not complex. It relies extensively on low value-added activities in the primary sector such as agriculture and cattle ranching. These activities have a lower return in terms of economic and social benefits than other potential productive activities and do not contribute to increasing capability accumulation. In this paper we present a tool to support the identification of strategic sectors and products which if taken advantage of, could leverage development through the accumulation of productive capabilities. Our guiding question is: Which productive sectors should be promoted to foster economic development in Paraguay through a transition towards a more complex economy? To answer this question, we use concepts from the Economic Complexity theory to identify new products and cluster them based on the Product Space methodology for the determination of potential products and combine it with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for multicriteria analysis considering multiple criteria. In doing so, our proposed methodology contributes to both the Economic Complexity and the AHP literature. Through this combination, we tackle the multiplicity of juxtaposed criteria, which should be considered at the prioritization stage in the crafting of economic restructuring measures according to the country's capabilities. Our evaluation showed that the combination of the approaches is useful, and for Paraguay's case, it helped identify sectors, which, if promoted by policymakers, could help boost economic development through complexity and capability accumulation.     

CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY: A SURVEY

This paper reviews recent research on the relationship between central bank policies and inequality. A new paradigm which integrates sticky‐prices, incomplete markets, and heterogeneity among households is emerging, which allows for the joint study of how inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates and how macroeconomic shocks and policies affect inequality. The new paradigm features multiple distributional channels of monetary policy. Most empirical studies, however, analyze each potential channel of redistribution in isolation. Our review suggests that empirical research on the effects of conventional monetary policy on income and wealth inequality yields mixed findings, although there seems to be a consensus that higher inflation, at least above some threshold, increases inequality. In contrast to common wisdom, conclusions concerning the impact of unconventional monetary policies on inequality are also not clear cut. To better understand policy effects on inequality, future research should focus on the estimation of General Equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents.     

THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This survey provides an updated review of the empirical literature on the regional effects of monetary policy in economic activity by means of undertaking a threefold perspective. First, the main methodological dimensions of this literature are examined while pinpointing those modelling or methodological traits that constitute a source of diverging estimates and thereby produce inconclusive evidence. Secondly, the estimates yielded by the literature are summarized by carrying out a cross‐study analysis of the results for each monetary union. By drawing on empirical regularities that are robust across studies, the conclusiveness of the results is assessed, while those monetary unions for which conclusive evidence is still lacking are also identified. Lastly, the sources of regional heterogeneity identified by these studies are reviewed in order to shed some light on the linkage between monetary policy and territorial heterogeneity. As a result of this threefold perspective, this survey delivers overall structured conclusions and updated policy‐relevant lessons. Moreover, various research gaps and emerging topics in the literature are also identified.     

The Feasibility of the Double‐Dividend Hypothesis in a Democratic Economy

The two dividends in the double‐dividend hypothesis are assumed to be independent. This assumption can be misleading when it comes to formulating policy. I construct a model where the pollution tax rate is voted for by heterogeneous people. In addition to the revenue‐recycling effect, the equilibrium pollution tax rate depends on two opposite forces: the tax‐cutting effect and the profit effect. The two forces show that an instrument that exploits a greater revenue‐recycling effect can cause a more severe environmental deterioration, thereby resulting in the infeasibility of the hypothesis. The introduction of the interdependence between the two dividends can also mean that non‐revenue‐raising instruments are more efficient than revenue‐raising instruments.     

金砖国家新开发银行环境和社会安全保障政策的创新性分析

为改善借款方的长期整体发展效果,金砖国家新开发银行对其环境和社会安全保障政策框架进行了大胆创新,着力推进借款方"本国体系"的使用和建设。传统多边开发银行的环境和社会安全保障政策往往采取施加于所有借款方国家法律之上"一刀切"的方式,但难以取得理想的发展效果,其主要原因有:无法影响非多边开发银行资助项目;条件过于僵化,导致部分借款方转而求助于其他融资选项;给借款方造成沉重的时间和费用负担。"本国体系"有效克服了上述难题,但也存在相应挑战。为应对挑战,未来金砖国家新开发银行推进借款国"本国体系"的努力方向是:为本国体系预设一个最低标准;逐步有序而非一步到位地推进本国体系;切实加大对借款方的技术援助。     

客户特征对商业银行信用卡业务盈利水平的影响

以中国商业银行的92837个信用卡客户为研究样本,根据客户的自然特征,运用两步聚类法对之进行分类,甄别出高盈利客户的特征。利用客户样本过去一年的交易记录测算各类客户对应的信用卡业务的盈利水平。以能给银行信用卡业务带来高盈利的客户为例,对其特征(包括自然特征和消费行为特征)与银行信用卡业务盈利水平的关系进行回归分析。研究结果显示:信用卡客户的自然特征和消费行为特征与商业银行信用卡业务的盈利水平具有一定相关性。提出:商业银行应运用数据挖掘技术精准识别高盈利客群、科学预估客户的盈利水平、合理配置营销资源以实现客户终身价值最大化。     

Excess corporate payouts and financial distress risk

Firms that follow excessive payout policies (over-payers) are higher on the financial distress spectrum and have lower survival rates than under-payers. In addition, over-payers endure lower future sales and asset growth than under-payers and experience negative abnormal returns in the bond and stock markets. Exogenous import tariff reductions and commodity price jumps reduce the likelihood of overpayment. We interpret this as evidence consistent with financial flexibility considerations, rather than risk-shifting, explaining the decision to overpay. We also find that CEO overconfidence and catering incentives affect overpayment.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.